Drone incursions in the Baltic theatre, as a spill-over from the Ukraine conflict, have become a serious threat – they have already provoked the fall of the government in Latvia in May – but responding to the menace also represents a major opportunity for local innovative start-ups in fields as varied as AI-assisted counter-propaganda, border surveillance and critical infrastructure protection, as well as conventional defence technologies.
The skies over the Baltic States seem to be turning into a Wild West free-for-all. Although the perceived military threat is from Russia, some of the recent disruptions have been caused by stray drones launched from Ukraine – towards the St Petersburg area– with which the Baltic States are aligned. In May the incidents proliferated, with the government in Riga collapsing due to political infighting over Latvia’s response to a drone incursion. Shortly after, a Romanian NATO fighter jet shot down a drone over Estonia and the following day another drone threatened Lithuanian airspace, causing Vilnius airport to be closed, traffic halted and residents sent into air raid shelters, among them the president and the prime minister. Further chaos and recriminations have unsettled the region, with many questions being asked.
These include the ambivalent behaviour of Belarus, from whose airspace drones have struck Lithuania; why so many Ukrainian drones are malfunctioning; and whether Russian jamming or redirection technology is responsible for diverting them from their targets. There are grounds for suspecting that at least some of the incidents are attributable to AI failure in Ukrainian drone targeting. This is supported by the nature of two of the targets hit, one in Estonia and the other in Latvia, respectively a power station pipe and an empty oil tank, rather than open ground, potentially suggesting that AI mistook these sites for the drones’ programmed objectives.
This fraught context has led to an intensified drive to accelerate development and production of enhanced defence technology in all three Baltic States. In the field of innovation these countries have the advantage of having built their modern civilian technology from scratch, following the fall of the Soviet Union. The problem is that local investment is necessarily small-scale and diversified across conventional defence technologies as well as innovation, so that start-ups, to remain viable, also need to compete in the export market. Government support helps; Estonia, for example, is increasing government grant support to start-ups in both the domestic and export market.
The innovative start-ups are focusing on autonomy, embedding AI with hardware, drones and edge computing to supply solutions in situations where GPS or communications have been disabled by enemy jamming. The longstanding need for responses to hybrid warfare waged against the Baltic States by Russia has already given the region a head start in software technology, cybersecurity and electronic warfare. In Lithuania, Vilnius-based Repsense has created advanced solutions to Russian propaganda, with tools capable of detecting the source, tracing its dissemination and measuring its impact. In Estonia, Tallinn-based DefSecIntel is developing integrated and automated C-UAS and autonomous surveillance technology for borders and critical infrastructure protection. Lithuania is already spending 5.33% of GDP on defence, the highest percentage among NATO allies. Lithuanian companies, including AB Giraite Armament Plant (GGG), have partnered to produce anti-drone cartridges for NATO weaponry, drawing on innovative concepts derived from observation of the Ukraine conflict.
A recent expert survey of start-ups in the Baltic States rated Estonia-based Frankenburg Technologies highest, followed by Latvia’s Origin Robotics in second place, both regarded as leaders in counter-drone technology. Third place went to Lithuania-based Unmanned Defence Systems, developing autonomous drones and command-and-control systems that integrate AI-based swarm tactics on the battlefield. Overall, defence experts identified 52 start-ups and companies showing high potential: 20 from Latvia, 18 from Estonia and 14 from Lithuania. Astrolight, a Lithuanian start-up, develops and produces laser communication solutions for space and for secure transmission of data between satellites, ground stations and other platforms. It is part of the NATO DIANA accelerator programme and has raised €2.8m.
Alongside these innovative, high-tech defence systems, the Baltic States are also constructing a more conventional defensive line – sometimes inaccurately compared to the Maginot Line – based on lessons from the Ukraine conflict. One clear message emerging from the Ukraine war is that territory is very difficult to reclaim once it has been occupied by the enemy. The usefulness of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt has underlined that fact. The Baltic States share a 950-kilometre border with Russia and they aim to make it as impenetrable as possible. To that end, they are creating the Baltic Defence Line, digging anti-tank trenches and installing concrete “dragon’s teeth” to obstruct enemy assaults, designed eventually to link up with Poland’s East Shield fortification programme. Construction will begin within weeks, on Latvia’s eastern border, including the erection of communication towers.
After the farcical failure of the Maginot Line in 1940, military sentiment moved away from the concept of fixed defences. Superficially, in today’s high-tech environment of swiftly mobile strike platforms, it might seem counter-intuitive to create a defensive line based on trenches and obstacles, reminiscent of the Western Front. But the small countries who are creating this line of defence against Russia know their own ground. They have seen, in Ukraine, the vast difference in outcome and casualty rates between an infantry unit defending in open country and one operating within a formidable defensive structure. The Baltic allies have embraced innovation in AI and other sophisticated technologies, but they believe they can usefully be complemented by more ancient defence systems whose principles would have been familiar to Julius Caesar. It is critical to blunt the impetus of any initial Russian blitzkrieg.
There is widespread consensus that any Russian aggression would likely be focused on the Suwalki Gap, the NATO-controlled corridor separating Belarus from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, along the Polish-Lithuanian border. While any Polish corridor has an ominous resonance in the context of geopolitical provocation, the Baltic nations are straining their resources and ingenuity to the optimum, to secure this vital NATO frontier. Their accomplishments, in technology and in the field, are a benefit to the whole Alliance.